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August 2020

Executive Summary

The pandemic has caused changes in elections as voters rely on mail ballots to avoid voting at a precinct or voting center with hundreds of potentially infectious people. In many states, voting laws have changed in anticipation of a record number of mail ballots, although none has joined the five states that have universal vote-by-mail in which every registered voter receives a mail ballot.
President Trump and some other Republicans have been attacking vote-by-mail methods more expansive than the old model of voting by absentee ballot only with a valid excuse. Absentee voting is acceptable, he maintains, but universal vote-by-mail will be rigged to the detriment of Republicans.

Voter fraud is extremely rare, including in Florida, studies show. No evidence exists that vote-by-mail helps the Democratic party. Mail balloting results in higher ballot rejection rates by minorities, young people and first-time voters. The legislature passed bills in 2019 and 2020 to avoid problems evident in 2018 elections.

Key Findings

  • The 2018 election was one of the closest in Florida history with three statewide races undergoing recounts and historic voter turnout for a midterm election.
  • Despite allegations of voter fraud and misconduct by elections officials, the most severe election problems were confined to two Florida counties and were addressed by the removal of each county’s Supervisor of Elections.
  • Because Florida’s Chief Elections Officer is appointed by the Governor, partisan concerns were raised when the Republican administration suspended and removed the Supervisors of Elections in two predominantly Democratic counties.
  • The Florida Legislature took action in the 2019 and 2020 legislative sessions to address the election problems that were identified in the 2018 election, including modifications to the vote-by mail process.
  • The Florida Legislature also adopted measures that some say will negatively impact voters and would be voters.
  • Mail ballots increasingly are being used as the primary method of voting in the states.
  • President Trump’s attacks on mail voting may lead to some Republicans distrusting the mail ballots, decreasing turnout.
  • Voter fraud is extremely rare. “It is still more likely for an American to be struck by lightning than to commit mail voting fraud.”1
  • Vote-by-mail does not help any political party, numerous studies show. It has increased voter turnout in some states.
  • Minorities, young people and first-time voters are most likely to have their ballots rejected because of nonmatching signatures or other defects.

Policy Options

  • Florida should consider following the lead of five other states and conduct universal vote-by-mail elections while still maintaining the option of limited in-person voting.
  • If it does move to primarily vote-by-mail, the state should consider pre-paying the postage for ballot return to increase voter turnout.
  • Whether it moves to universal vote-by-mail or not, Florida should consider a biannual voter education program.
  • If Florida does not move to vote-by-mail elections, it should consider giving counties that option for local elections.
  • Florida should consider giving Supervisors of Election more flexibility over early voting and polling place locations.